Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".